Tuesday, October 6, 2009

The Saints are 4-0 . . . but so what?

Let’s get one thing out of the way: Drew Brees did not have a “bad game.” Not throwing for 300 yards and multiple touchdowns does not constitute having a bad game. What Brees did, in fact, was better than throwing for 300 yards and multiple touchdowns: he kept the ball out of the hands of the Jets’ defense – and that is what good quarterbacks do when facing a very good defense: they simply take what the defense allows and give them nothing in return. Brees finished the game 20-32 – a 62.5 completion percentage – with zero touchdowns and, more importantly, zero interceptions against an extremely talented and well-coached defense. How is this a bad game?

I believe it is safe to assume that the only way Brees could have finished this game with the kind of outlandish numbers he put up almost every game last year and the first two games this year was by playing catch-up all game long – and I don’t think the Jets’ offense is good enough to have taken such a big lead by itself. In other words, the only way Brees would have put up big numbers was in an effort to make up for mistakes early in the game. Instead, Sean Payton appeared to realize that the Jets had won their first three games by converting turnovers into points and thus devised a conservative game plan in order to minimize the risk of turning the ball over to the Jets – a plan Brees carried out quite successfully. So Brees and Co. played it safely and did not turn the ball over, which in turn allowed the Saints defense to play aggressively and make the big plays it did in order to help win the game. That doesn’t sound like bad football to me; it sounds like smart, effective and winning football.

So, with Drew Brees playing a larger-than-acknowledged role in this latest victory, the Saints are now 4-0. This perfect start leaves me with one question: so what? The Saints could win seven of their next twelve games and still miss the playoffs. Nothing is guaranteed in the NFL, except for the fact that bad officiating will have an unfortunately big impact on at least one important game every season. Winning seven of twelve is difficult enough, but for the Saints to be all-but-assured of a playoff spot it must win eight of its next twelve games. Does that seem like a sure thing to anybody? Didn’t think so.

Yeah, the 4-0 start is great and everything, but it means nothing other than that the Saints are allowed one or perhaps two more mistakes than the teams that are not 4-0. This is not to say that Saints fans shouldn't feel optimistic, mind you. In fact, there are plenty of reasons for Saints fans to be optimistic at this point, the most important of which are three facets of the game in which the Saints have shown noticeable improvement this season.


First, Sean Payton’s play-calling is restrained and once again creative. With the exception of his decision to go for it on 4th-and-goal instead of kicking the field goal (always take the points when playing an excellent defense, coach!), Payton appears to have found some much-needed self-control. I didn’t see any reverses on third-and-short, nor did I see any halfback options or reckless downfield passes into triple coverage. The game plan appeared simple: be patient and take what the Jets give since they’re probably not going to give up anything big. Along with this new-found ability to adjust, Payton seems to have found the creativity he displayed his first season with the Saints as well. By that statement I probably mean that he’s actually calling run plays again, of course. Despite its obvious ability to score big, the Saints’ offense sorely lacked a consistent running game the last two seasons, and much of its inconsistency appeared simply to be a lack of confidence on the part of Payton to put the ball in the hands of his perfectly capable running backs. This year Payton seems to have realized that just because you can score seemingly at will via the pass does not mean you must score at will via the pass. Running the ball effectively takes more time off the clock and keeps your defense well-rested – this fact was overlooked in explaining all the woes experienced by the New Orleans defense the past two seasons (not that it excuses most of those embarrassingly blatant blown coverage disasters in the secondary) – and ultimately gives your team a better chance to win much of the time even if the team is not scoring as many points.


The defense is greatly improved – and not just because of the arrival of Gregg Williams, though he has much to do with it. The personnel is simply better: Darren Sharper has filled the slot of the monumentally incompetent duo of Kevin Kaesviharn and Josh Bullocks; Tracy Porter is back from his broken wrist and taken over for the horribly overmatched Jason David ; Jabari Greer and Randall Gay are the third and fourth cornerbacks rather than Jason Craft and Aaron Glenn; and Will Smith and Charles Grant, though both remain overpaid for their respective contributions, are healthy again and playing at a higher level than last year. Throw in Gregg Williams’ more diverse and more aggressive defensive schemes, and this unit now looks almost completely different from the past two seasons’ defenses. Sure, it’s still early in the season, but it is safe to assume that this New Orleans Saints defense will not allow as many third-down conversions or easy scores as the last two Saints defenses did.


The third improvement might be slightly overlooked, but it is definitely important: the special teams have improved just enough to make things easier on the defense. Gone is the instability at kicker – John Carney has been reliable on field goals, and Thomas Morstead is getting longer, more consistent hang time on his punts and more touchbacks on his kickoffs, thus allowing fewer opportunities for big returns by the opponent. Sure, our return men are still shaky – I cringe every time Reggie Bush runs side-to-side with the ball over-exposed for easy pickings – but they're not horrible by any means, either. The improvement on kickoffs and punts, however, is especially important since the Saints’ return coverage has been generous and inconsistent over the entirety of Payton’s tenure as head coach; the addition of Carney and Morstead appear to have solved the kicking problem and given the defense just enough more room for error to be even more aggressive.

The 4-0 start is excellent, but perspective must be kept: a perfect quarter season means very little in this league. A few injuries here and a suspension there – coupled with some bad luck and unfavorable officiating (which seems to destroy at least one half of one game every season) – and this 4-0 start easily could turn into a 9-7 season in a league as competitive as the NFL. Nonetheless, the Saints appear to have improved significantly in enough facets of the game to give the team’s long-suffering fans a legitimate reason to feel optimistic about the last twelve games of the season – and hopefully beyond.